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Shashi Tharoor’s win in Trivandrum:Analysis

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The dust has settled down.Now over to some number crunching.My 2 cents. :-)

Shashi Tharoor got 44.3% of the total votes in the Thiruvananthapuram parliamentary constituency.More than half of Vattiyoorkavu and Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Constituency voters voted for him(Fig-2).

Neelan and the much discussed Nadar factor(they form 18% of the PC) did not work much against Tharoor.Was it because of Neelan’s image?Or did the Nadars not believe that Neelan would get a cabinet berth in the Mayawati lead govt.Bah! Remember, Mayawati started her election campaign in Thiruvananthapuram, whatay colossal loss.

Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise

Fig-1:Thiruvananthapuram LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise-1

Just around 5% of Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakootam voted for Neelan. Nemom’s 7% voted for him.On expected lines Neyyatinkara,Kovalam and Parasala had a lot of Neelan votes,but he still was behind CPI’s Ramachandran Nair in these assembly constituencies.Ramachandran Nair got about 31% of the total votes.

The order of the top two candidates was consistent across ACs.
PK Krishnadas (BJP) was at #3 in Nemom,Thiruvananthapuram,Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakoottam assembly Constituencies;Neelan at #3 in Neyyatinkara,Kovalam and Parasala.Majority of Muslim votes across ACs should have gone to INC,while the major chunk of Muslim votes left in these ACs went to Neelan.(Eg.Kovalam)

So what worked for Tharoor?The neutral voters,the CPI-CPI(M) rift and the whole anti Left sentiment be it due to lack of development in the city, anti incumbency.The Christian votes would have predictably gone in favour of Shashi Tharoor.He has successfully tapped the Nair+Ezhava vote bank,I would conclude.All these together ended up in favor of Dr.Tharoor.Guess what I heard from someone before the elections,”orithiri vivaram ulla ellarum Tharoorine kodukku” turned out to be true.

Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise

Fig-2: Thiruvananthapuram LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise-2

Tharoor’s and Ramachandran Nair’s votes were more or less equally distributed across ACs.A slightly higher contribution to Tharoor’s kitty came from Thiruvananthapuram and Vattiyoorkavu ACs.With Parassala,Nemom and Kazhakkutam contributing over 15% to Ramachandran Nair’s votes,even here you could see a uniformity in the vote distribution across ACs.We should be proud of the voters of Vattiyoorkavu,Thiruvananthapuram AC,Kazhakoottam and Nemom for spoiling Neelan’s party.The Nadar+Dalit factor did play a part in getting most of Neelan’s votes;79% of his votes came from Neyyatinkara,Kovalam and Parassala.

Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Candidate

Fig-3:Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Candidate wise

Now, a look at how Thiruvanthapuram has been voting through the years(BSP not included as its only share worth mentioning was in 2009)

Vote Share Trend-Trivandrum(CPI,INC,BJP)

Fig:4-Vote Share Trend-Thiruvananthapuram(CPI,INC,BJP)

LokSabha Poll 2009-Votes

Fig:5- LokSabha Poll 2009-Votes

Here is a link to the spreadsheet I made just to get a hang of the numbers.

Download the whole data sheet which includes a pivot table(3 of 4 sheets password protected,mail me if you need the password).Happy analyzing.

Right click,Save as to Download

Right click,"Save as" to download


PS: On a lighter note, the candidate who is an MP even after losing,ya no points for guessing that, fared miserably.MP Gangadharan(NCP) whose clock was all over the place,got 2972 votes.Talk about pipe dreams ;-) or bad times.

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17 comments

1 kiran277 (Kiran KV)No Gravatar { 12.31.69 at 11:59 pm }

Read detail article about Sasi tharoor’s win in TVM : http://bit.ly/10NG4r

2 scorpiogeniusNo Gravatar { 05.18.09 at 1:49 am }

Now, good work there buddy.;)

Nikhil, honestly how much did you think these caste and creed will affect the electoral? (or in the past tense now) What do you think if Neelan was the INC candidate this time? What would have been the result? Remember Neelan’s history, and as a young turk whom he defeated here in Tvm.

I hear a lot of rubbish about this X-ian votes, Muslim votes, Nadar, Ehava, Nair bla bla bla, and many a times we have been proved wrong. I dont believe that Trivandrum, except for a few sporadic patches, votes by looking at the last name of a contestant. I believe Tharoor would’ve won even if he was contesting for the Cherries.. Well, its my take.

Politics is always like this no? Look how the cheap tricks of CPM to gather up Muslim votes backfired horribly. This is what happens if you play caste-politics, even though religion has become a pillar of it.

3 BrijeshNo Gravatar { 05.18.09 at 3:40 am }

There are a good percentage of neutral voters in all the constituencies who determine the winners and losers. Last time majority of them voted for LDF and this time UDF. Earlier the political parties learn about that, the better it is for them.

4 MartinNo Gravatar { 05.18.09 at 9:23 am }

Good work, i see a future for you in Political Analysis. So, This is why you needed the excel expert?
I guess there is only one thing that speaks for itself through these charts- the people of Trivandrum, rather than playing along to petty regional politics, saw the potential in ST and went ahead to vote for him. The story of Indian Politics is coming pretty much to that: Offer the people a future, they will vote for you, rather than clinging on to the hatred and vengeance of the past.

5 gregorylentNo Gravatar { 05.18.09 at 11:47 am }

what? no mention of the malayali ego? and its love of being recognized?

mata amritanandamayi was nobody until she spoke in malayalam at the united nations. when she returned it took about 8 hours to get to vallickavu from kochi, normally 3 hours …

he’s famous, in short .. all the calculations in the world cannot quantify that

6 PraveenNo Gravatar { 05.18.09 at 7:11 pm }

nice analysis work…
But beyond all this, its the charisma of the man and the big dreams that he offered for the malayalis that worked in his favour..
Lets hope those dreams turn into reality!

7 tenaliramaNo Gravatar { 05.19.09 at 9:34 pm }

So you putting your HP Analytics skills to good use. Great Analysis.
Lets see how Shashi tharoor fares in the coming days

8 SalilNo Gravatar { 05.19.09 at 11:19 pm }

I think the people of TVM voted Shashi to power not becuase they liked him, but they wanted you to get that typist job. So that you can be the ‘valam kayy’ of the ‘valam kayy’ of the possible Minister of External Affairs, something like ‘elanakki-chirinakki’ type :-)
Cheers,
Salil

9 UshaNo Gravatar { 05.20.09 at 12:56 am }

Lol @ Salil’s take!

The elanakki, kirunakki reminds me of “Kilukkam” :D!

But yes, he has charisma. Still it was the games the Left played with Madani that finally did them in, and then again, they goofed up big time. More than that … well, who knows, but the voter?

Amazing research!

10 KeerikkadanNo Gravatar { 05.20.09 at 6:05 pm }
11 Sajith MNo Gravatar { 05.22.09 at 3:58 pm }

That’s quite a bit of analysis.. Good use of the analytical skills as @tenalirama pointed out.

12 UshaNo Gravatar { 05.22.09 at 4:09 pm }

Nikhil… anniversary aashamsagal :) :)

Avide comment cheyyan sammadhikkathondaanu ivide ezhuthiyathu :)

High Fives for the next anniv, in anticipation too :)

13 Best Blog Posts from Indian Blogosphere: Spicy Saturday Picks { 05.23.09 at 1:14 pm }

[…] : Nikhil Narayanan What : Shashi Tharoor’s win in Trivandrum: Analysis Spicy : Shashi Tharoor won comprehensively in this elections. He was one of the leaders who was […]

14 ankushNo Gravatar { 06.11.09 at 3:42 pm }

gud work Nikhil… gr8 to see someone doing something in political analysis space… me too interested in it :):)…. any tips for the starters like me…

15 maddyNo Gravatar { 06.13.09 at 4:17 am }

anna –

levane kandittundo? aal engine? now put the trivandram twang in those words. and tell me how the vazhipokkan answers this in trivandrum, not your take, but the common mans take.

I like tharoor, though i have taken objection to his comments about RK narayan.. and i sincerely hope he brings something new to the table & eventually succeeds ..

16 NikhilNo Gravatar { 07.07.09 at 1:05 am }

@kiran277
Thanks for the tweet

@scorpiogenius @Brijesh
Thanks sire!

@Martin
No,that was for something else.
Thanks for the comment dude!

@gregorylent
I am not a fan of that lady inspite of the said UN visit.May be,the ego.Who cares.

@Praveen
Thanks da.

@tenalirama
Thanks :D

@Salil
PA’s PA’s PA’s PA :P

@Usha
Teacher, thanks.

@Keerikadan
Thanks for the visit,I did.Thanks

@SajithM
Thanks da

@Usha
Thanks teacher.

17 NikhilNo Gravatar { 07.07.09 at 1:07 am }

@BlogAdda
Thanks
@ankush
Thanks dude.LOL! This was an attempt, I am no pro.

@maddy
Aal nalla oru manushyana.
Vallathum cheythal TVM inu kollam.Enikkum.Enne polathe kure perkkum

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