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Shashi Tharoor’s win in Trivandrum:Analysis

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The dust has settled down.Now over to some number crunching.My 2 cents. :-)

Shashi Tharoor got 44.3% of the total votes in the Thiruvananthapuram parliamentary constituency.More than half of Vattiyoorkavu and Thiruvananthapuram Assembly Constituency voters voted for him(Fig-2).

Neelan and the much discussed Nadar factor(they form 18% of the PC) did not work much against Tharoor.Was it because of Neelan’s image?Or did the Nadars not believe that Neelan would get a cabinet berth in the Mayawati lead govt.Bah! Remember, Mayawati started her election campaign in Thiruvananthapuram, whatay colossal loss.

Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise

Fig-1:Thiruvananthapuram LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise-1

Just around 5% of Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakootam voted for Neelan. Nemom’s 7% voted for him.On expected lines Neyyatinkara,Kovalam and Parasala had a lot of Neelan votes,but he still was behind CPI’s Ramachandran Nair in these assembly constituencies.Ramachandran Nair got about 31% of the total votes.

The order of the top two candidates was consistent across ACs.
PK Krishnadas (BJP) was at #3 in Nemom,Thiruvananthapuram,Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakoottam assembly Constituencies;Neelan at #3 in Neyyatinkara,Kovalam and Parasala.Majority of Muslim votes across ACs should have gone to INC,while the major chunk of Muslim votes left in these ACs went to Neelan.(Eg.Kovalam)

So what worked for Tharoor?The neutral voters,the CPI-CPI(M) rift and the whole anti Left sentiment be it due to lack of development in the city, anti incumbency.The Christian votes would have predictably gone in favour of Shashi Tharoor.He has successfully tapped the Nair+Ezhava vote bank,I would conclude.All these together ended up in favor of Dr.Tharoor.Guess what I heard from someone before the elections,”orithiri vivaram ulla ellarum Tharoorine kodukku” turned out to be true.

Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise

Fig-2: Thiruvananthapuram LS Polls 2009-Assembly Constituency wise-2

Tharoor’s and Ramachandran Nair’s votes were more or less equally distributed across ACs.A slightly higher contribution to Tharoor’s kitty came from Thiruvananthapuram and Vattiyoorkavu ACs.With Parassala,Nemom and Kazhakkutam contributing over 15% to Ramachandran Nair’s votes,even here you could see a uniformity in the vote distribution across ACs.We should be proud of the voters of Vattiyoorkavu,Thiruvananthapuram AC,Kazhakoottam and Nemom for spoiling Neelan’s party.The Nadar+Dalit factor did play a part in getting most of Neelan’s votes;79% of his votes came from Neyyatinkara,Kovalam and Parassala.

Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Candidate

Fig-3:Trivandrum LS Polls 2009-Candidate wise

Now, a look at how Thiruvanthapuram has been voting through the years(BSP not included as its only share worth mentioning was in 2009)

Vote Share Trend-Trivandrum(CPI,INC,BJP)

Fig:4-Vote Share Trend-Thiruvananthapuram(CPI,INC,BJP)

LokSabha Poll 2009-Votes

Fig:5- LokSabha Poll 2009-Votes

Here is a link to the spreadsheet I made just to get a hang of the numbers.

Download the whole data sheet which includes a pivot table(3 of 4 sheets password protected,mail me if you need the password).Happy analyzing.

Right click,Save as to Download

Right click,"Save as" to download


PS: On a lighter note, the candidate who is an MP even after losing,ya no points for guessing that, fared miserably.MP Gangadharan(NCP) whose clock was all over the place,got 2972 votes.Talk about pipe dreams ;-) or bad times.

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May 18, 2009   17 Comments

Shashi Tharoor wins

Shashi Tharoor wins the parliamentary elections from Trivandrum,Kerala.Great news for Trivandrum,well deserved victory for Dr.Tharoor.

Shashi Tharoor campaigning in Trivandrum(SAJABlogs)

What next for Tharoor? External Affairs portfolio?

We will revisit his vision for the city,a year after.

(Photo: [Shashi Tharoor campaigning in Trivandrum](SAJABlogs))

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May 16, 2009   7 Comments

Mayawati suffers PMS, announces manifesto

Addressing a rally organized as part of her 53rd birthday celebrations, India’s Dailt leader and Prime Minister in waiting, Kum. Mayawati announced her elephantine vision for India’s future. Showing no signs of the acute PMS (Prime Minister Syndrome) she was reportedly suffering from, Behenji vociferously lashed out at the opposition who called her corrupt. She even threatened to celebrate her 53rd birthday next year and stay 52 for a year more if the protests continue.

In a move that surprised all, she expressed unhappiness over Obama’s victory. “What if he is a black?”,said the CM. She said that the Republicans were always close to her. “Aap logo ne dekha nahi kya unka haathi?”,said her linking her party to the Republicans.
In her inimitable style, she changed sides half way through the rally. She said that she may now change her party symbol to gaddha not only to pledge support to the most powerful president in the world but to reflect the ethos of her drove.

She blasted the media for projecting Rahul Gandhi as the future PM. When asked about his ongoing Amethi tour with UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband, Kumari said,”Us bande mein kya hai?” leaving the media perplexed if she was referring to Milliband or Rahul.

Mayawati mentioned her recently launched blog and said it would bring newer generation to the polling booths. A reporter, who asked if she was trying to copy LK Advani’s idea, was taken away by her body guards. She said her blog was (a) hit even before the launch. When asked for the link, she smirked and said, “Dhoonte rah jaoge” .

To counter the oft abused slogan ” Bijli Sadak paani” by pro development parties, she announced her drab new slogan, “Behenji PM baney”.
Faking News managed to get a copy of her grand plans for India. Excerpts below:

We will focus on building the morale of the Indian armed forces to make them self reliant. Undue stress on discipline has affected the Indian forces and hence they were not able to advocate a single coup in the last 60 years, unlike our enemy neighbor that has mastered this art.

The center’s plan to set up NSG hubs across India is waste of precious resources. We will rename every state’s police force as Elite Commandoes like we have done to the UP Police( Now UP Elite Commandos ) Cost cutting starts at home.

We promise to have a separate ministry for protection of elephants; it is high time to change our national animal from the soon to be extinct tiger to the pachyderm. We will soon have elephants to take members to and from the parliament.

I am angry at ICC for not including even a single dalit cricketer in the list of 20 test cricketers of all times. We will ban ICC, a racist organization working against the secular fabric of India.

Unlike her earlier birthday celebrations, the chief minister did not announce a single project for the state and said her outlook was now national.

The CM said her rule has made UP a healthy state. She seemed convincing with the numbers she produced. “In some parts of UP, there is only a doctor for 30,000 people and that means people are healthy”, said Kumari.
The Rs. 12 Crores collected for the CM’s birthday will solely spent for her own good and not for the state, said the press release from her office. It is her birthday and not the state’s, the release added.

(This post was written by Shreyash and me. Previously published on Faking News with slight modifications)

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January 16, 2009   19 Comments